Daily Fantasy NBA Picks from DFSR for 12/2/17
Kyrie Irving FD – $9200 DK – $9200
Opponent – PHO
Proj Pts FD – 43.95 DK – 44.88
The Celtics are the hottest thing this side of the sun, and today, they face a Suns team that is anything but hot. Phoenix may not have the worst record in the association, but that’s not for lack of trying. They’re outright terrible on defense, and that, when combined with their incredible 105.6 pace of play makes them the perfect DFS target. Enter, Kyrie Irving, who has been astounding in his debut season with Boston. He’s seen the better side of thirty minutes in six of his last seven games and has shot 50% or better in the same. He most recently dropped 36 on the Sixers giving him five games in November with 30+ points scored. The blowout concern is real in this one with Boston favored by 13, and Irving hasn’t surpassed the 30 minute mark in games the Celtics have won by 13 or better, but with only three games to choose from Irving projects to be the best way to spend up at the position on the early set against a defense that allows the most fantasy points to the position.
Damian Lillard FD – $8800 DK – $8900
Opponent – NO
Proj Pts FD – 46.12 DK – 48.07
Damian Lillard come on down! The price is right on the TrailBlazers point guard, as he dips below the $9K mark on both sites and is nearing season low pricing on FanDuel. He also sees a primo matchup against the Pelicans, who are extremely generous when it comes to allowing fantasy points to opposing guards. Over the past five games, point guards are scoring nearly 55 fanDuel points against New Orleans, which ranks them third worst at the position in that span. As for Lillard, he has seen an impressive stretch, running the boards 36-40 minutes in each of the last five games played. Vegas has this game with the lowest projected spread, just 3.5 points with a modest 208 total. Lillard not only tops our raw point projections at the one tonight, but he’s got the second highest points per dollar ranking to boot. I’ll have Lillard everywhere on the main slate, cash and tourney.
Lonzo Ball FD – $7000 DK – $6600
Opponent – DEN
Proj Pts FD – 37.64 DK – 37.88
The only point guard with a better PPD projection than Damian Lillard is Lakers rookie guard Lonzo Ball. Ball is still coming into his own, as is the whole young Lakers team, and despite some erratic shooting performances, he has been getting plenty of floor time, nearly 34 minutes per game, while picking up plenty of peripheral stats, averaging 7 rebounds, 7.2 assists, and 1.4 steals per game. He picked up his third double double in four games in a thrilling OT loss to Golden State on Wednesday night scoring 15 while dishing out 10 assists, and though he suffered a cut over his eye and required stitches, he isn’t appearing on any injury reports so it seems safe to assume he’s fine to lock in tonight against the third most generous defense to opposing point guards in the game.
Lou Williams FD – $8000 DK – $7800
Opponent – DAL
Proj Pts FD – 42.87 DK – 44.98
Sweet Lou Williams has just come out of nowhere to become one of the hottest fantasy plays in the NBA. Just two weeks ago, Williams was on the sub side of the $7K price tag across the industry, and today he’s the top priced shooting guard on the day, priced at or near $8K. Williams is now the starting SG for the Clippers and has taken full advantage, averaging 37 minutes over his last four games during which he has shot 42.9%. In three of those he has gone 50% from deep with multiple three pointers in six straight. This game doesn’t have the blowout concern of the Boston game, though it does feature two of the slower teams in the game with a combined 98.8 pace factor, so we have to pick our poison on this early three game set. All things considered, Lou Williams is just too hot to pass on right now, and as long as he keeps shooting the way he has, I’ll be buying in on the regular at these prices.
Tyreke Evans FD – $6900 DK – $6900
Opponent – CLE
Proj Pts FD – 41.58 DK – 42.36
Tyreke Evans has proven to be an invaluable asset recently for the injury plagued Grizzlies. Despite his scoring 20.5 points 4.3 rebounds and 4.5 assists in November he has seen his price come down significantly after spiking just a week ago. Now that he’s back in the sub $7K club, it’s hard to argue against Evans as long as he continues to run with the starters and see 30 minutes a night. Some may be off Evans tonight, facing the Cavaliers in a game with an opening 11.5 point spread, but the Cavaliers have been at their worst defending the two-guard, allowing 51.8 FD points to the position, in a game that will be a significant pace up contest for the generally slow Memphis squad. Not only do I love Evans for his safety, at these prices I’m feeling significant upside as well, as he projects as one of the top PPD plays on the day and I will have exposure in all formats.
Avery Bradley FD – $5500 DK – $5600
Opponent – PHI
Proj Pts FD – 28.57 DK – 29.42
Detroit travels into Philadelphia tonight as the Sixers host the Pistons, and we’re going to dip back into the Avery Bradley well once again. Austyn wrote up Bradley last night as the Pistons were in D.C. and he ended the night with 13 points, two assists, a block and four steals putting himself at 5X PPD or better in his third straight contest. The minutes are there, and the matchups have been favorable for the former Celtic now in his first season in Detroit. JJ Redick is a serviceable defender, but certainly nothing to shy away from, and the Sixers as a team are allowing near as many FD points per game as the Cavs are, so the opportunity should be there in another pace up contest for the Pistons against a Sixers team that plays the fourth fastest game in the NBA. To echo Austyn’s sentiments yesterday, Bradley isn’t a must play, but he’ll get you where you want to be in cash games for sure.
Jaylen Brown FD – $5900 DK – $6300
Opponent – PHO
Proj Pts FD – 29.08 DK – 29.54
Jaylen Brown has thrown up two stinkers after missing last Saturdays game for personal reasons, scoring a total of 11 points in games against the Pistons and Sixers while not doing a whole lot else to make up for the lax shooting. That said, this is a perfect opportunity for redemption for the second year forward against the Suns who as I have already said, simply cannot play defense. Much like Kyrie above, the blowout risk is a bit of a concern for Brown, who prior to that personal miss against the Pacers was putting up double digit scoring performances in eight straight games. It’s a bit risky given his recent performance, but if Brown is able to find his shot he’ll have no trouble paying value, and could go low owned in tournaments, making him an appealing GPP play as well. There’s not a lot to like about SF on the early set so I’ll gladly take the chance on Brown in a superb matchup.
Taurean Prince FD – $5700 DK – $5600
Opponent – BKN
Proj Pts FD – 30.55 DK – 30.28
The Hawks travel into Brooklyn for a game with a combined pace factor of 102.7. While the Nets aren’t the DFS punching bag they were last season, they’re still a less than stellar defensive match up that plays the third fastest game in the league, so targeting them is not out of the question at all. This opens a great spot for Taurean Prince, who in addition to scoring double digit points in six of his last seven he has proven he can easily fill out a stat sheet with 5 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.3 steals per game. The minutes have been all over the place, ranging from 18 to 39 in his last seven games played, but as long as Prince sees 25-30 he should be able to hit the sweet spot, and with a mere 4.5 point spread, the minutes should be there.
Robert Covington FD – $6300 DK – $5900
Opponent – DET
Proj Pts FD – 32.3 DK – 31.76
We’re going to look past the big money guys here at the three, as LeBron and Giannis are each in matchups against teams that not only play tough at the three, but also play at the second and third slowest paces respectively, each with an 11.5 point spread so there isn’t a lot of appeal in dropping $12K on either. Instead let’s look a little lower in the pricing pool, starting with the surging Sixers and their surprise star wing Robert Covington. RoCo has put up some duds in the past week against the Cavs and Celtics, but tonight gets to face a Pistons team who have been a bottom five defense against the three over their last five games. The Sixers are five point favorites in a game with a higher projected total than the Bucks or Cavs game, and though Detroit may slow Philly’s game down a bit, this game still carries a 101.7 pace factor and there should be plenty of opportunity for the Philly small forward. I’m not sure I feel much upside for RoCo, but in cash games, there is definitely appeal.
Juan Hernangomez FD – $4000 DK – $3700
Opponent – LAL
Proj Pts FD – 22.3 DK – 22.39
For value at the three let’s take a look at Juan Hernangomez. Nikola Jokic rolled his ankle in Thursdays game against the Bulls, and has been ruled out for tonight’s game against the Lakers. This opens a ton of minutes, and we’ll delve further into the matter in a bit, but I see a small number of added minutes heading to Hernangomez, who will likely be starting once again for Wilson Chandler who has missed two games already with lower back soreness. Hernangomez is priced to the point where he doesn’t need to do a ton to give us value, but he certainly needs to give us more than the 1/1/2 line he posted against Chicago. In his first start against the Jazz Juan give us seven points ten rebounds and a block, which is much more in line with what we need to look for today and shouldn’t be out of the question against a Lakers team allowing 20.3 points and 9.6 rebounds to opposing threes. We don’t have any word from Vegas on this one, but with the Nuggets missing Jokic, Millsap, and quite possibly Chandler, I wouldn’t expect it to get out of hand, while leaving plenty of minutes up for grabs for Hernangomez.
Jayson Tatum FD – $5900 DK – $6200
Opponent – PHO
Proj Pts FD – 29.62 DK – 30.12
We return to Boston for the early set and their rookie phenom Jayson Tatum. Tatum is turning a lot of heads early on in his young career, and the fantasy world is quickly catching on. He’s shooting 49% from the field with 1.5 three pointers per game, with 11 straight contests of double digit scoring, and is being rewarded with all the run time he can handle. As for the match up, there isn’t much more I can say, it’s the Suns, they’re terrible in the defensive game, and Tatum should be free to shoot and could pick up his second career double double against a team allowing 24.9 points and 12.9 boards to opposing power forwards. Tatum is an excellent play at a very appealing price.
The problem with doing these picks the night before is sometimes you plan to write up a solid play and then “stuff” happens. Such is the case as Anthony Davis was helped to the locker room in the fourth quarter of last night’s game against the Jazz with a groin injury just as I was set to write him up. The severity of the injury is unknown as of this writing, so we will have to wait on word from the Pelicans to confirm his status for tonight, though a healthy Davis was projecting for the highest point total of any player on todays slate. We’ll monitor this one, though even if Davis does play, I’ll proceed with caution for now.
Ben Simmons FD – $10400 DK – $9600
Opponent – DET
Proj Pts FD – 49.57 DK – 50.29
Projecting very close to Davis, at a similar cost is the Sixers rookie Ben Simmons. Simmons missed a game earlier this week with an ankle injury, but in three games back has seen 114 minutes and shown no signs of the ankle slowing him down any. While he struggled at times against the Cavaliers and Celtics, Simmons was phenomenal on Wednesday against the Wizards dropping 31 points for the first time in his career despite the hack-a-Shaq game the Wiz were clearly playing by repeatedly fouling him in the fourth in an attempt to take advantage of his struggles at the line. Detroit coms to town tonight, and despite being listed as a PF, Simmons generally plays the point for Philly, a position the Pistons are subpar at defending. If Davis is ruled out Simmons is my top play for the night, and honestly, maybe even if Davis does play just to keep on the safe side.
Kenneth Faried FD – $5200 DK – $4800
Opponent – LAL
Proj Pts FD – 30.24 DK – 29.73
We spoke earlier about the injury bug working its way through the Nuggets locker room. First Millsap, then Jokic, while Chandler hasn’t been faring too well himself lately. This opens the door for a ton of minutes to fall Kenneth Faried’s way, as he splits time between the four and backing up Mason Plumlee. All of this for just $5K in salary. Faried saw 22 minutes against the Bulls on Thursday and ended the night paying nearly 6X PPD. The Lakers rank in the bottom third defensively at the four and this could shape up to be a huge night for Kenny F. He could easily be looking at 30 minutes, should be a lock for 5X, with potential 6X+ upside. I’ll have a ton of Faried in my lineups.
Al Horford FD – $7700 DK – $8100
Opponent – PHO
Proj Pts FD – 37.74 DK – 38.19
Al Horford stole the show against the Sixers on Thursday night in a game where Philly was without Joel Embiid. Horford posted 21 points for the second time in his last three games, while packing the stat sheet chock full of eight boards and five assists, along with two blocks. Horford has been hot down the stretch paying over 5X in two of his last three games at these prices while averaging 33 minutes. The story remains the same as we’ve covered this game at nearly every position. Phoenix is terrible on defense, play a fast game, and there is significant blow out risk in this one. With just three games to choose from however, I feel more confidence in Big Al than I do any other center on the early slate.
Andre Drummond FD – $9100 DK – $8600
Opponent – PHI
Proj Pts FD – 46.22 DK – 47.18
This game has a lot of fantasy appeal from both sides, as we have already covered several plays from each team and we have one more to look at in Andre Drummond. Both Drummond and the guy he’ll be tasked with most of the night, Joel Embiid project for similar point totals, but Drummond will give us those points at a significant savings. On the Detroit side of things, Drummond gets matched up against a Philly team that plays the fourth fastest pace, while big men that go against Philly score the third most fantasy points in the game. Philly is allowing 17.5 points and 12.1 rebounds to opposing bigs this year while Drummond has been playing out of his mind lately, paying 6.25X and 7.74X PPD in two of his past three games. Drummond should be safe enough for cash games and has flashed plenty of upside to warrant consideration in tournaments as well.
Mason Plumlee FD – $4700 DK – $3800
Opponent – LAL
Proj Pts FD – 31.21 DK – 30.23
If you don’t have the funds to spend up on Drummond, then spend all the way down with Mason Plumlee. Plumlee is another player benefitting from the absence of Nikola Jokic, and will see the most direct benefit. Plumlees minutes have been all over the place coming off of the Nuggets bench this season but now with the front court depleted of starters, Plumlee, along with Faried and Hernangomez stand to see a ton of opportunity as Joker stands to miss several games after rolling his ankle against the Bulls on Thursday night. Plumlee’s shooting 52.6% from the field and averages 6.04 rebounds per game for his career and will make the start against a Lakers team allowing 16.8 points and 11.7 rebounds per game to opposing big men. If Plumlee sees 30+ minutes his ceiling will know no limits.
This post originally appeared on DFSR.com